{"id":802,"date":"2025-12-23T10:36:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T10:36:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/?page_id=802"},"modified":"2025-12-23T10:41:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T10:41:08","slug":"chapter-1","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/second-edition\/toc\/chapter-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Chapter 1: Introduction"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"embedurl\" data-url=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/books\/hcistats\/content2e\/chaps\/chap-1.html\" ><!--  Chapter 1 Introduction  -->\n\n<script>\nvar chapnos = 1;\nvar json_url = \"https:\\\/\\\/alandix.com\\\/books\\\/hcistats\\\/content2e\\\/chaps\\\/chap-1.json\";\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3> Contents <\/h3>\n<div class=\"toc\">\n<dl>\n<dt>1.1&nbsp;&nbsp;Why are probability and statistics so hard?<\/dt><dd><dl>\n<dt>1.1.1&nbsp;&nbsp;In two minds<\/dt>\n<dt>1.1.2&nbsp;&nbsp;Maths and more<\/dt>\n<\/dl><\/dd>\n<dt>1.2&nbsp;&nbsp;Do you need stats at all?<\/dt>\n<dt>1.3&nbsp;&nbsp;The job of statistics &ndash; from the real world to measurement and back again<\/dt><dd><dl>\n<dt>1.3.1&nbsp;&nbsp;The &lsquo;real&rsquo; world<\/dt>\n<dt>1.3.2&nbsp;&nbsp;There and back again<\/dt>\n<dt>1.3.3&nbsp;&nbsp;Noise and randomness<\/dt>\n<\/dl><\/dd>\n<dt>1.4&nbsp;&nbsp;why are you doing it?<\/dt><dd><dl>\n<dt>1.4.1&nbsp;&nbsp;Empirical research<\/dt>\n<dt>1.4.2&nbsp;&nbsp;Software development<\/dt>\n<dt>1.4.3&nbsp;&nbsp;Parallels<\/dt>\n<\/dl><\/dd>\n<dt>1.5&nbsp;&nbsp;Questions for statistics &ndash; what do you want to know?<\/dt>\n<dt>1.6&nbsp;&nbsp;What next<\/dt>\n<\/dl><\/div>\n\n\n<h3> Glossary items referenced in this chapter <\/h3>\n<div class=\"toc\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/a-b%20test\">A&amp;ndash;B test<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/artificial%20intelligence\">artificial intelligence<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/base%20rate\">base rate<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/bayesian%20reasoning\">Bayesian reasoning<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/bayesian%20statistics\">Bayesian statistics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/bias\">bias<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/big%20data\">big data<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/binomial%20distribution\">Binomial distribution<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/chatgpt\">chatgpt<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/cherry%20picking\">cherry picking<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/coin%20tossing\">coin tossing<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/confidence%20interval\">confidence interval<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/conscious%20thinking\">conscious thinking<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/descriptive%20statistics\">descriptive statistics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/effect%20size\">effect size<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/empirical%20data\">empirical data<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/empirical%20methods\">empirical methods<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/empirical%20statistics\">empirical statistics<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/epistemologically%20random\">epistemologically random<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/error%20bars\">error bars<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/error%20rate\">error rate<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/estimate\">estimate<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/expert%20evaluation\">expert evaluation<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/explanation\">explanation<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/exploration\">exploration<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/exploration%20stage\">exploration stage<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/fair%20coin\">fair coin<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/five%20users\">five users (the myth)<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/formalist\">formalist<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/formative%20evaluation\">formative evaluation<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/formative%20stages\">formative stages<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/frequentist\">frequentist<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/good-enough%20solution\">good-enough solution<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/hypothesis%20testing\">hypothesis testing<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/idealist\">idealist<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/in-the-wild\">in-the-wild<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/independence\">independence<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/iterative%20development\">iterative development<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/iterative%20evaluation\">iterative evaluation<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/large%20language%20model\">large language model<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/linear%20regression\">linear regression<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/machine%20learning\">machine learning<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/mathematics\">mathematics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/mean\">mean (&amp;mu;)<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/mechanism\">mechanism<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/normal%20distribution\">Normal distribution<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/odds%20ratio\">odds ratio<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/ontologically%20random\">ontologically random<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/p-value\">p-value<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/plausibility\">plausibility<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/population\">population<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/probabilistic%20phenomena\">probabilistic phenomena<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/probability%20distribution\">probability distribution<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/qualitative%20methods\">qualitative methods<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/r\">R<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/random%20effect\">random effect<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/random%20number%20generators\">random number generators<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/real%20world\">real world<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/sample\">sample<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/schrodinger%27s%20cat\">Schrodinger&#039;s cat<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/seeded\">seeded<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/significance%20test\">significance test<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/simulation%20methods\">simulation methods<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/software%20development%20process\">software development process<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/standard%20deviation\">standard deviation (s.d., &amp;sigma;)<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/statistical%20analysis\">statistical analysis<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/statistical%20power\">statistical power<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/student%27s%20t-test\">Student&#039;s t-test<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/subconscious%20reactions\">subconscious reactions<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/summative%20evaluation\">summative evaluation<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/the%20job%20of%20statistics\">the job of statistics<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/theoretical%20distribution\">theoretical distribution<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/traditional%20statistics\">traditional statistics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/typical%20user\">typical user<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/uncertainty%20measure\">uncertainty measure<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/uncontrolled%20factors\">uncontrolled factors<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/unrepeatable%20event\">unrepeatable event<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/user%20experience%20design\">user experience design<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/user%20interface%20development\">user interface development<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/user%20studies\">user studies<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/validation\">validation<\/a><\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/variability\">variability<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alandix.com\/glossary\/hcistats\/visualisation\">visualisation<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<!-- ?php\n\tif ( @$page['prolog_examples'] ):\n?>\n<h3> Prolog examples (from 1st ed.) <\/h3>\n<!-- ?php\n\techo $page['prolog_examples'];\n?>\n<!-- ?php\n\tendif; \/\/ @$page['prolog_examples']\n? -->\n\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":801,"menu_order":1,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-802","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=802"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":834,"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/802\/revisions\/834"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alandix.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}