Chapter 2: The unexpected wildness of random

Contents

2.1  Experiments in randomness
2.1.1  Rainfall in Gheisra
2.1.2  Two-horse races
2.1.3  Lessons
2.2  Quick (and dirty!) tip
2.2.1  Case 1 – small proportions
2.2.2  Case 2 – large majority
2.2.3  Case 3 – middling
2.2.4  Why does this work?
2.2.5  More important than the math …
2.3  Probability can be hard – from goats to DNA
2.3.1  The Monty Hall Problem
2.3.2  Tip: make the numbers extreme
2.3.3  DNA evidence

Glossary items referenced in this chapter

Binomial distribution, coin tossing, count data, DNA evidence, estimate, mathematics, Monty Hall problem, opinion poll, population, R, random `noise', representative sample, sample size, standard deviation (s.d., σ), survey data, systematic effects, variability, variance